Weirton, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

699
FXUS61 KPBZ 152107
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There is the potential for strong to severe storms late tonight
into early tomorrow morning with a warm front. Severe storms
are also possible late Friday into Saturday ahead of passing
cold front. Probability of drier and cooler conditions increases
after Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:


- Mostly quiet conditions this afternoon/evening with a
  building ridge
- A passing warm front will return thunderstorms to the area
  overnight, some of which could be severe

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A few stray showers are noted northeast of Pittsburgh with a
passing shortwave near Lake Erie. However, convection is below
10kft and only poses an isolated lightning threat through 4pm.

To our west, a warm front is currently draped across southern
Ohio and central Indiana. Temperatures have jumped into the
upper-80s and mid-70s behind the warm front. A surge of moisture
is expected to advance late this evening as low-level winds
(950mb to 850mb) increase to 40kts.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany a warm
front after 10pm tonight, some of which could become strong to
severe. All threats are on the table, with noted dry air above
(DCAPE over 1000J/kg) and sufficient mid-level lapse rates
(+7.0C/km) to prompt strong downdrafts and large hail. Effective
low- level shear near 30kts and curved hodographs may also
promote rotating updrafts for tornadoes. There is a noted low-
level stable layer on model soundings. However, with ongoing
energy from an upstream mesoscale convection system (MCS),
severe storms will easily plow through that environment.

As for flooding, storm motion should be fast enough to avoid a
widespread flood threat, though heavy downpours will still be
likely, given PWATs near 1.50 inches. Any vulnerable locations
could still experience localized flooding issues (e.g., urban
and low-lying areas, and any locations that experienced flooding
from recent rains).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Storms likely ongoing early Friday with the passage of a warm
  front
- A break in severe storms expected between 10am and 5pm Friday;
  isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
- Severe storm potential increases with an approaching mesoscale
  convection system after 6pm Friday

----------------------------------------------------------------

Between midnight and 9am Friday, strong to severe storms are
expected to be passing through the region from west to east with
the remnants of convection initiated off the warm front (see
near term discussion).

By late Friday morning the environment will likely need some
time to recover, rebuild instability, to initiate organized
storms once again. However, a isolated storm can`t be ruled out
from lingering outflow boundaries.

High resolution model guidance has been consistent that by late
evening (between 6pm to 8pm) a mesoscale convection disturbance
will initiate to our west, just ahead of a cold front. The
disturbance will potentially track east into the Ohio River
Valley. Machine learning and sounding analogs support damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes with this new round of severe
weather Friday night into early Saturday. Over the last 12
hours, the Storm Prediction Centers has expanded the threat east
to support high resolution model trends. A large portion of the
region is now under a Slight Risk (2/5 on the severity scale
index). Probability of severe weather appears promising between
9pm and 2am Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with a new
  low
- Potential for heavy rain mid-week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing mid-level subsidence and decreasing dew points in the
wake of the cold front Saturday afternoon will likely decrease
the potential for thunderstorms.

Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes
and northwest flow will keep temperatures seasonable Sunday
into Monday.

Probability of precipitation increases late Tuesday into
Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and
tracking east. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary
straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If this
scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions
of the region.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions this afternoon despite the increased cu
development. A few instances of showers and a couple
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and will most likely
move around the terminals but an isolated occurrence is
possible. Winds will mainly be light across the area out of the
south.

A shortwave trough is expected to track across the Upper Ohio
Valley region tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to develop as the trough crosses the region. Included
TEMPO lines in the taf for the most likely time of occurrence
of these storms. Enough instability is expected to support these
storms well into the overnight hours, though intensity is in
question, especially east of a FKL-PIT-MGW line. Still, severe
storms are possible with this line.

Some restrictions are likely behind the MCS expected tonight,
mainly due to fog and low cigs. However, this will clear out and
will expect VFR conditions by 15Z.

Outlook...
Showers/storms should exit the region early Friday morning,
though some patchy MVFR fog/stratus is possible early. VFR is
then expected until an approaching cold front returns a
thunderstorm and restriction potential late Friday into Friday
night. Some of these storms could also be severe. Patchy MVFR is
possible in scattered showers Saturday into early Sunday with a
subsequent upper trough. VFR returns Monday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Shallenberger